As part of my series on Black History Month, I would like to address the idea of “the dream” achieved, at least in terms of black kids growing up to have a realistic shot at becoming President of the United States. Since Barack Obama’s election, I’ve often heard others claim this is a real possibility and that the paradigm has somehow changed, but is it really true?
To determine this we should look at the previous election that produced a black President. The media is a primary driver in this idea of who could be a serious contender for the Presidency. You might have good ideas, but unless you have the benefits of free media attention, you’ll have a tough hill to climb. Unfortunately this rules out most alternative party and independent candidate runs. Other than media and major party status, other factors used to determine serious contender status includes money, connections and previous positions held. In my mind, there’s no natural conflict for a non-white, non-male candidate to be able to raise funds for the campaign. Connections may be a little harder, but is not impossible. Previous positions held seems like a good place to start.
On the Democratic side, serious contenders included four sitting Senators (Biden, Clinton, Dodd and Obama), two previous Senators (Edwards and Gravel), one sitting House member (Kucinich), one sitting governor (Richardson) and one former governor (Vilsack). Of these, a sitting Senator was African-American, one sitting Senator was a woman and one sitting governor was a Hispanic-American. The last two candidates in the running for the nomination were both sitting senators. I think it’s safe to say that most people viewed the sitting Senators as the top-tier candidates in this nomination race. Again, I’m not saying these were the ones with the best ideas, but the ones with the media, the money and the mo (as in “momentum”).
On the Republican side, serious contenders included two sitting Senators (McCain and Brownback), one former Senator (Fred Thompson), three sitting House members (Hunter, Paul and Tancredo), four former governors (Gilcrest, Huckabee, Romney and Thompson) and one former mayor (Guiliani). All of these were white males. Of these, one of the sitting Senators and two of the former governors were touted as viable contenders until almost the end of the nomination race. Brownback should have done better. The House members were really marginalized during the entire campaign, especially Ron Paul, considering the high regard he held from most conservatives prior to his run, the success of his online fundraising efforts and the fact that he was the only Republican candidate who was right about the economy. I’m not sure how anyone could have viewed Guiliani as credible, but to each their own I always say.
It seems that there was a bias toward sitting Senators in the previous election, since both major party nominees (and one of their Vice-Presidential running mates) were sitting Senators. I wonder if McCain would have done better by picking sitting Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson as his running-mate instead. Anyway, there seemed to be a bias to those candidates who were still in office and thus currently in the spotlight, as opposed to those who have been out for a while. This brings me to my analysis of “the dream” achievable:
Consider the currently-elected Senators, Congressman and Governors as the farm team from which future African-American Presidential candidates can be drawn. There are 39 sitting House members who are African-American. This is about 9% of the House, which is approximately 4.5% lower than the number predicted by the most recently available U.S. racial and ethnic demographic statisics. As we’ve seen with House members in the previous election, unless these House members can go to the Senate before running for President, they probably won’t be too successful. There is only one current African-American U.S. Senator (out of 100 Senate seats), and that is Roland Burris. With all the controvery Burris has had over his legitimacy in his Senate seat, it’s doubtful that he would be viewed as a contender for President. Similarly there is only one sitting African-American governor, David Patterson of New York. Oddly enough Patterson also came into the office amidst a high-publicity scandal.
If electing a black President is the litmus test for “the dream” achieved AND a potential black President will require previous elected office experience before being considered viable, it’s looking that the chances of a future African-American being elected as President of the United States is slim. If this is a valid measure of “the dream” achieved, only future electoral cycles will tell. Then again, maybe electing a black President isn’t the mark that determines black success. Maybe it’s something that is less quantifiable in nature. I propose that the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States is a fluke, and in and of itself, does not represent a movement forward in the state of the success of the African-American community at the start of the 21st century. When the masses are able to succeed and move past the success of one man, then success will be obtained. Then (and only then), can it be said that “the dream” has been achieved.
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